Rosebud, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Rosebud SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Rosebud SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD |
Updated: 10:49 pm CDT Jun 6, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Isolated Showers
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Saturday
 Mostly Sunny
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Saturday Night
 Isolated T-storms then Scattered Showers
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Sunday
 Becoming Sunny and Windy
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Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear and Breezy
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Monday
 Sunny and Windy
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Monday Night
 Mostly Clear and Breezy then Mostly Clear
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Tuesday
 Sunny
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Tuesday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Lo 51 °F |
Hi 81 °F |
Lo 51 °F |
Hi 72 °F |
Lo 50 °F |
Hi 73 °F |
Lo 48 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
Lo 58 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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Isolated showers before 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. |
Saturday Night
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Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then scattered showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday
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Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 72. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 73. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 58. |
Wednesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy. |
Wednesday Night
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Breezy. |
Thursday
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy. |
Thursday Night
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. |
Friday
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Rosebud SD.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
995
FXUS63 KUNR 070443
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1043 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms mainly focused over the Black Hills
diminishing this evening
- Showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon with some strong
wind gust potential in northern/central South Dakota
- Windy Sunday
- Warming trend mid-week with increasing thunderstorm chances and
potential severe storms late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Water vapor channel satellite imagery shows an upper level trough
moving eastward across Wyoming early this afternoon. Flow is
noticeably stronger at tropopause/jet level, with a distinct PV
anomaly in the models. Lower tropospheric flow is quite weak.
There are two precipitation regimes ongoing today: 1) weak
convection rooted in the mid levels and resultant light
precipitation amounts that has been ongoing from central/southern
Wyoming eastward into Nebraska and far southern South Dakota, 2)
diurnal convection focused within elevated heating regime in the
Black Hills. The latter may have sufficient depth for some charge
separation and lightning later this afternoon, but weak
instability and insufficient low-mid tropospheric flow/shear will
likely limit organization and intensity and convective hazards
beyond lightning. Convection may struggle to maintain east of the
Black Hills as cloud layer flow is weak.
A deepening midlevel trough to our north will force a weakly
baroclinic front through our area tomorrow afternoon. The post-
frontal air mass per model guidance will be slightly more moist,
contributing to a shallow layer of instability atop a deep well
mixed PBL. This should support isolated to scattered diurnal
convection with some potential for strong wind gusts with the more
intense convective cells given the deep PBL mixing. Strengthening
tropospheric flow will support faster storm motions compared to
today (southeasterly at 40-45 mph). There is a low probability of
damaging wind gusts, mainly across roughly the northeast third of
the forecast area where instability is modest but potentially
sufficient mid-afternoon through early evening. The primary
convective threat will be lightning, however.
On Sunday, pressure gradient will be tight between positive MSLP
anomalies in the lee of the Rockies and and trough/surface low to
our east. Coupled with deep diurnal mixing, windy conditions with
gusts to 40-50 mph are expected especially east of the Black
Hills.
Western ridging and associated positive midlevel height anomalies
will migrate eastward across the west and central part of the
country through the week, bringing a warming trend for our region.
Temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to at least 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. Convection in the
Black Hills due to elevated heating will re-emerge possibly with
the diurnal cycle Tuesday, and more likely Wednesday, as modest
low level moisture return occurs.
Model ensemble spread grows some by the latter part of next week
(Thursday-Friday), though the broader synoptic signal of
increased troughing in the west and somewhat perturbed
southwesterly flow over our region is consistent among the model
suite. Low end severe thunderstorm probabilities exist in the
ensemble-driven CSU machine learning system during this period.
Most models do show instability/shear parameter space favorable
for organized intense convection, with some forcing from upstream
trough.
Early indications for the Day 8-14 period are for above normal
temperatures and near normal precipitation. There is a range of
possibilities in the ensembles at that time range (as is typical),
but a general trend toward retrograding/amplifying ridging over
the area with a progressive pattern still and associated periodic
opportunities for convection.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1043 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Localized MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out in lingering SHRA
across south central SD thru 09z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
anticipated area-wide thru at least 18z. Thereafter, ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA may develop from north to south across the area as a
front arrives, which could bring localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
In addition, gusty northwest winds are anticipated along/behind
the front, with 30-40 kt gusts likely 18-00z over much of northwestern
SD and portions of the northeastern WY plains.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Bowers
AVIATION...Sherburn
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